Fuel prices are moving sideways

Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX) indexes did not show a clear trend and moved sideways during the 15th week of the year.

In particular, the 380 HSFO index increased to US$511/MT, the VLSFO index rose to US$654.96/MT, while the MGO index fell to US$891.04/MT.

The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – decreased to US$143.64 during Week 15. The weekly average fell by US$8.20 as well. The SS Spread in Rotterdam fell by US$15 to US$112. The Rotterdam SS Spread weekly average fell by US$22.67. Meanwhile, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential in Singapore continued at US$120, with the weekly average losing US$11.84. Given the present market scenario, the data shows that the SS Spread might be reduced further next week.

LNG spot prices have fallen by 80% since their peak in 2022, but estimates currently predict that costs will rise again, not just owing to Asia, but also due to summer demand as hydropower levels fall. It may be time for European Union planners to reintroduce long-term contracts to hedge risk and avert the negative implications of another price shock.

On 12 April, the price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines in Portugal substantially reduced again, reaching US$1,028/MT. On the same date, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel was US$168: MGO LS in the port of Sines was quoted at US$860/MT that day. The pricing disparity is steadily narrowing.

The 380 HSFO fuel was undervalued during Week 15, according to the MDI index (correlation of MABUX market bunker pricing (MBP Index) against MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index) in the following ports: The weekly average increased at Fujairah by one point to US$104, while the MDI in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston was US$60, US$49, and US$34, respectively.

According to MDI, underestimating of fuel was recorded in the VLSFO section at all chosen ports, including Houston, which was in the overestimation zone the previous week. The underprice ratios were as follows: Rotterdam – US$46, Singapore – US$20, Fujairah – US$28, and Houston – US$10. The weekly average undercharge for all ports grew substantially.

In the MGO LS sector, there are still three ports in the understimation zone: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston. Average weekly undervaluation levels in Rotterdam fell moderately to US$59, US$76 in Singapore, and US$27 in Houston. Fujairah, on the other hand, remains the sole overestimated port with a US$157 mark.

“The bunker fuel market remains uncertain and subject to volatility, with various factors potentially impacting prices in the coming weeks. We do not expect drastic changes of bunker indices in the near-term outlook,” commented Sergey Ivanov, director of MABUX.